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Prediction for CME (2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-03T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42333/-1
CME Note: Large partial halo CME visible to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2 (for a few frames before a data gap), GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.6 class flare from AR 14274 (N25E90) with associated filament ejecta, moving/opening field lines, a rising loop, post-eruptive arcades and possible EUV wave as seen in GOES SUVI wavelengths 195, 284, 131, 304, 171. A separate M5.0 class flare follows the first flare closely which appears to have been the source of the EUV wave and may contribute to the shock structure associated with this CME, especially the SE portion of it. The EUV wave is best seen in GOES SUVI 195 spreading towards the coronal hole visible nearing the central Earth-facing disk.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-06T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42340/1
Model Inputs:
2025-11-03T09:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-70.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=1124.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2025-11-03T12:51Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-06T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-03T21:55Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-04T16:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T22:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-05T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251103_125100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 57.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-03T14:47Z

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